The Definition: A Shatterbelt is a strategically located region that is deeply internally divided and caught between the conflicting interests of great powers (superpowers). Unlike a “buffer state,” which remains neutral to separate rivals, a shatterbelt is a zone of active competition where external powers intervene to gain a foothold.
Core Characteristics
- Internal Fragmentation: The region is a “mosaic” of different ethnicities, religions, languages, or political ideologies. This makes it prone to civil unrest or splintering.
- External Intervention: Because of its strategic location (e.g., control of a strait, a mountain pass, or a resource), global powers (like the U.S., Russia, or China) exert pressure through military aid, economic coercion, or proxy wars.
- Global Volatility: Local conflicts in a shatterbelt rarely stay local. They tend to escalate into global crises because the superpowers involved cannot afford to lose influence in that specific geography.
Primary Modern Shatterbelts
Schematic representations of major geopolitical fault lines in contemporary world politics.
1. Eastern Europe (The Heartland–Rimland Collision)
Historically the “crush zone” between Western maritime powers and the Russian heartland.
2. The Middle East (The Resource & Religious Fault Line)
A region of intense internal fragmentation and sustained external intervention.
3. Southeast Asia (The Maritime Shatterbelt)
A maritime collision zone between a rising continental power and the dominant global naval power.
The Shatterbelt Theory, originally popularised by Saul Cohen, is more relevant today than during the Cold War. As we move into a multipolar world, the number of shatterbelts is increasing. Smaller nations in these zones are forced to choose sides or risk becoming the battlefield for “Great Power Competition.”